Match Analysis: Stoke City vs Charlton Athletic – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-25
- Time: 7:45 PM UTC
- Location: bet365 Stadium, Stoke-on-Trent
Game Overview
Stoke City, currently third in the Championship after 16 games with 8 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, face Charlton Athletic, who have shown mixed form with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses in recent matches. Stoke has the best defensive record in the Championship with only 12 goals conceded, while Charlton's defense is also solid, conceding 17 goals, better than most in the league. Both teams experienced recent defeats, Stoke losing 2-1 to Leicester City and Charlton suffering a heavy 5-1 loss to Southampton. This match is crucial for Stoke to maintain promotion hopes and for Charlton to stabilize their campaign.
Key Factors to Consider
- Stoke City is in better overall form with a higher league standing and superior defensive record. Charlton Athletic struggles offensively but maintains a decent defensive setup. Recent results favor Stoke despite their back-to-back defeats, as they have been more consistent throughout the season.
- Since 2007, the teams have met 4 times, with Stoke City winning 2 matches and Charlton Athletic winning 1, indicating a slight edge to Stoke historically.
- No critical injury updates were noted for either side in the provided data, suggesting both teams will likely field strong lineups.
- The match is held at Stoke's home ground bet365 Stadium, providing home advantage. Stoke's motivation to move into the top two adds pressure and incentive. Charltonβs recent heavy defeat may affect morale but also motivates recovery.
- Stoke City aims to regain momentum after two consecutive losses to strengthen their promotion bid, while Charlton Athletic looks to avoid further decline and ensure Championship safety with a better attacking threat.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Charlton Athletic: 3.05, Stoke City: -1.19, Draw: 2.4 | Stoke City win | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Charlton Athletic +50: -1.05, Stoke City -0.5: -1.15 | Stoke City -0.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25: -1.2, Under 2.25: 1 | Over 2.25 goals | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Stoke City 3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.25 10% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 2.25 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Stoke City to edge a close match with a 2-1 victory over Charlton Athletic, based on defensive strengths and motivation to bounce back from recent defeats.
Predicted Score: 2-1