Match Analysis: St. Louis City SC vs San Diego FC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-11
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: St. Louis City SC Home Stadium
Game Overview
The match between St. Louis City SC and San Diego FC features two relatively evenly matched teams with contrasting recent form dynamics. St. Louis City SC has shown moderate recent success with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches, scoring on average 1.2 goals and conceding 1.6. In contrast, San Diego FC is in stronger form with 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 matches, averaging 2.2 goals scored per match and conceding 1.8. Their only direct head-to-head encounter this season ended in a 0-0 draw, indicating a cautious approach from both sides in prior clashes. San Diego’s attacking potential and recent high goal frequency suggest an open and competitive game, while St. Louis’ home advantage and balanced performance add complexity to predictions.
Key Factors to Consider
- St. Louis City SC has a solid but moderate form, with a good home record and a 40% Asian Handicap win rate in recent matches. They score 1.2 goals on average while conceding slightly more. San Diego FC is in strong form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring over 2 goals on average and possessing a stronger offensive presence, though they concede almost 2 goals per match. Both teams have a 40% Asian Handicap win rate recently.
- The teams have met only once directly this season, resulting in a goalless draw. Historically, no outright wins have been recorded between them with the first encounter ending under 1.5 and under 2.5 goals. This indicates a tight and possibly defense-oriented matchup in their previous meeting.
- No specific injury data is available from the search results; however, given the close timing to the match, any significant absences could tip the balance, especially in key attacking or defensive roles.
- The match is played at St. Louis City SC’s home ground, which offers them home crowd support and familiarity. No adverse weather or other external disruptions are noted in the data.
- San Diego FC currently shows high motivation with a strong winning streak and high goal-scoring form. St. Louis City SC, playing at home, will be motivated to resist and capitalize on their home advantage to halt San Diego’s momentum.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Diego FC: 160, St. Louis City SC: 150, Draw: 280 | St. Louis City SC to win | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
| Spread | San Diego FC: -105, St. Louis City SC: -115 | Spread pick St. Louis City SC (0) | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.75: -115, Under 2.75: -105 | Under 2.75 goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | St. Louis City SC 5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.75 17% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.75 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given San Diego FC's recent superior form and higher goal-scoring average, they are slight favorites, but St. Louis City's solid home performance and the cautious nature of their only previous meeting suggest a competitive encounter likely to be close and potentially low-scoring.
Predicted Score: 1-0
