Match Analysis: St. Louis City SC vs Nashville SC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-10
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: CityPark, St. Louis, USA
Game Overview
The match is a Major League Soccer fixture between St. Louis City SC and Nashville SC. St. Louis City SC currently ranks 14th in the Western Conference with a 4-14-6 record, while Nashville SC is 3rd in the Eastern Conference with a 14-6-5 record. Nashville SC enters the match in stronger form, showing more consistent offensive and defensive statistics. St. Louis City's recent form is poor with three consecutive losses, struggling both defensively and offensively.
Key Factors to Consider
- Nashville SC demonstrates superior performance metrics including higher shots on target (5.64 vs 4.29), goals scored (1.68 vs 1), and better passing accuracy when compared to St. Louis City. St. Louis City has not kept a clean sheet in 15 matches and has lost the last three games. Nashville SC also leads in disciplinary factors with the most penalties awarded this season (10).
- The teams have met once previously with Nashville SC winning and no draws or wins for St. Louis City SC. This suggests a psychological edge and experience advantage for Nashville SC.
- Latest data does not specify key injuries; lineups will be confirmed closer to the match kickoff. No significant injury news affects predictions currently.
- The match is played at CityPark, St. Louis, giving St. Louis City SC home advantage. However, Nashville SC's superior overall form and higher ranking in the MLS likely mitigate this factor.
- Nashville SC is motivated to maintain their top Eastern Conference position vying for playoff advantages, while St. Louis City SC, near the bottom of the Western Conference, aims to stop a losing streak and boost morale.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nashville SC: 110, St. Louis City SC: 220, Draw: 270 | Nashville SC win | β β β β β 70% |
| Spread | Nashville SC -0.5: 105, St. Louis City SC +50: -139 | Nashville SC -0.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -156, Under 2.5: 117 | Over 2.5 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nashville SC 5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 -5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Nashville SC at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Nashville SC is favored to win due to better team form, higher MLS ranking, and superior offensive and defensive statistics, despite playing away. Expected match outcome is a narrow Nashville SC victory.
Predicted Score: Nashville SC 2 – 1 St. Louis City SC