Match Analysis: St. Louis City SC vs Los Angeles FC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-28
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Dick's Sporting Goods Park, Commerce City, CO
Game Overview
The match features Western Conference contenders Los Angeles FC, who have a solid winning record and more consistent performance this season, against St. Louis City SC, a relatively new and struggling MLS side with a negative goal differential and defensive vulnerabilities.
Key Factors to Consider
- LAFC stands with a 14-8-7 record, averaging nearly 2 goals per game and boasting a positive goal difference, while St. Louis City SC records 7-7-17 with a -13 goal differential, scoring fewer and conceding more than LAFC. LAFC shows stronger away form and recent winning momentum.
- Limited history due to St. Louis being a relatively new MLS franchise, but LAFC have been dominant in recent encounters and have better experience in high-stakes Western Conference matches.
- No key injuries reported for either side. Both teams appear to have their primary starters available, enhancing the prospects of a full-strength clash.
- Game played at high altitude (Commerce City, CO) potentially favors the more physically prepared LAFC side, which has adapted better to such conditions. Weather and travel impact minimal for these teams.
- LAFC is pushing for playoff positioning and has higher motivation to secure points, while St. Louis City SC's playoff hopes are slim, likely impacting intensity and focus.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Los Angeles FC -102 / St. Louis City SC +228 / Draw +300 | Los Angeles FC | β β β β β 75% |
Spread | Los Angeles FC -0.5 -106 / St. Louis City SC +50 -125 | Los Angeles FC -0.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Over/under | Over 3.5 +119 / Under 3.5 -159 | Under 3.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Los Angeles FC 29% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 3.5 14% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Los Angeles FC at 29% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Los Angeles FC to win on the moneyline, cover the -0.5 spread, and the match to be Under 3.5 goals.
Predicted Score: LAFC 2 – 1 St. Louis City SC