Match Analysis: Sport Recife vs Mirassol – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-25
- Time: 9:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho (Ilha do Retiro), Recife, Brazil
Game Overview
Sport Recife hosts Mirassol in a tightly contested Brazil Serie A match that features evenly matched teams with contrasting recent forms and strong defensive tendencies but potential for goals given attacking qualities.
Key Factors to Consider
- Sport Recife has shown inconsistent form with limited wins in their recent 30 matches but benefit from home advantage. Mirassol enters as slight favorites with better recent results and momentum in the league.
- Historically, matches between these teams have been close with no decisive dominance, often resulting in draws or narrow wins.
- No significant injury concerns reported for either side that would materially affect the starting lineups or tactical approach.
- Home pitch advantage favors Sport Recife; weather conditions expected to be standard for the region in late October with no extreme disruptions.
- Both teams are motivated to secure points to climb the table but Mirassol shows slightly higher momentum and confidence going into the fixture.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Sport Recife: 172, Mirassol: 159, Draw: 225 | Draw | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Sport Recife 0: -105, Mirassol 0: -115 | Sport Recife 0 (Asian Handicap Draw No Bet) | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25: -125, Under 2.25: 105 | Over 2.25 goals | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Mirassol 20% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.25 4% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Mirassol at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Draw on moneyline; Sport Recife on spread (0 line); Over 2.25 goals
Predicted Score: 1-1