Match Analysis: Sport Recife vs Flamengo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 9:30 PM UTC
- Location: Ilha do Retiro, Recife, Brazil
Game Overview
This Brazil Campeonato match features struggling Sport Recife hosting top-tier Flamengo, a dominant force this season with strong attacking and defensive records.
Key Factors to Consider
- Flamengo is in excellent form, winning 3 of last 5 matches and conceding only 0.4 goals per match, while Sport Recife has poor form with only 2 wins in 32 league matches and conceding 1.72 goals per match.
- In 22 meetings since 2007, Flamengo leads with 13 wins, Sport Recife has 3 wins, and there have been 7 draws. Flamengo has consistently dominated this matchup.
- No significant injuries reported for Flamengo. Sport Recife has typical squad fitness issues but no key absences impacting attack or defense.
- Match played at Sport Recife’s home stadium, which may bolster their motivation, but Flamengo’s quality and away resilience remain decisive factors.
- Sport Recife must avoid relegation and will be motivated to secure points, but Flamengo is pushing for the title with strong motivation to maintain top form.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Flamengo: -335, Sport Recife: 900, Draw: 415 | Flamengo | ★★★★☆ 80% |
| Spread | Flamengo -1.5: -102, Sport Recife +1.5: -118 | Flamengo -1.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -120, Under 2.5: +100 | Under 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Flamengo -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 20% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Flamengo to win on the moneyline, covering the -1.5 goal spread, with under 2.5 goals likely due to Flamengo's strong defense and moderate attacking pace.
Predicted Score: 0-2