Match Analysis: Sport Recife vs Cruzeiro – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-11
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio Ilha do Retiro, Recife
Game Overview
Sport Recife will host Cruzeiro in a Brazilian Campeonato match on May 11, 2025. Both teams have a competitive historical record with Cruzeiro having the edge in wins, but Sport Recife performs strongly at home. The match is expected to be balanced with moderate scoring opportunities.
Key Factors to Consider
- Sport Recife has an average scoring rate of 1.45 goals per home match this season, with 80% of their home games exceeding 1.5 total goals. Cruzeiro averages 1.17 goals per away match, with 66.67% of away games over 1.5 goals but only 33.33% over 2.5 goals. Recent performances show Cruzeiro's slight dominance in overall wins but a close contest is likely.
- In 21 recent matches, Cruzeiro leads with 12 wins, Sport Recife has 5 wins, and 4 ended in draws. Both teams average roughly 1.81 goals per match in their meetings. The last 12 meetings show Cruzeiro winning 6 times and Sport Recife 2 times with 4 draws, indicating Cruzeiro's historical advantage but also competitive balance.
- No specific injury information is available from the current data, suggesting no major absences affecting key players for either side at this time.
- The match is played at Sport Recife’s home ground, which historically favors the home team given their better home record and higher home attendance support. Weather and pitch conditions are expected to be normal for a May evening in Recife.
- Sport Recife will be highly motivated to capitalize on home advantage to improve their standing, while Cruzeiro will look to extend their superior head-to-head record and maintain consistent away results.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cruzeiro: 2.05, Sport Recife: 1.45, Draw: 2.2 | Sport Recife win | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Spread | Cruzeiro: -0.25 @ -130, Sport Recife: +25 @ 110 | Sport Recife -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
| Over/under | Over: 2 goals @ -115, Under: 2 goals @ -105 | Under 2 goals | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Sport Recife 27% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2 7% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Sport Recife at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The match leans slightly in favor of Sport Recife due to home advantage and better recent home scoring form, but a draw or a narrow Cruzeiro win is plausible given historical trends. Expect a moderately open game with goals likely but not high scoring.
Predicted Score: Sport Recife 1 – 0 Cruzeiro
