Match Analysis: Sport Recife vs Atletico Mineiro – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Sport Recife Home Stadium
Game Overview
This Brasileirão Série A match features struggling Sport Recife at home against mid-table Atletico Mineiro. Recife is in dire form and facing relegation, while Atletico is unbeaten in their last 5 matches and pushing for international competition qualification.
Key Factors to Consider
- Sport Recife is bottom with 17 points struggling with only 1 draw in last 5 games. Atletico Mineiro is 11th with 40 points, unbeaten in last 5 with 3 wins and 2 draws.
- Atletico Mineiro has dominated recent meetings winning 4 of last 5, including comfortable 2+ goal margins. Sport Recife won only 1 of last 8 overall encounters.
- No major injuries reported for key players from either side; both teams expected at near full strength.
- Sport Recife is under pressure fighting relegation and playing at home; Atletico Mineiro has recent momentum but struggles away recently, though coming off an emphatic home victory.
- Sport Recife is highly motivated to avoid drop with desperate need for points. Atletico Mineiro motivated to secure a top half finish and continental spot.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: +250, away: +121, draw: +205 | Atletico Mineiro | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Spread | home +25: -108, away -0.25: -112 | Sport Recife +0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | over 2.25: -102, under 2.25: -118 | Under 2.25 goals | ★★★☆☆ 63% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Atletico Mineiro 11% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 15% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Atletico Mineiro win
Predicted Score: 1-1