Match Analysis: Southampton vs Sheffield Wednesday – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 3:00 PM UTC
- Location: St Mary's Stadium, Southampton
Game Overview
Southampton hosts Sheffield Wednesday in an EFL Championship clash where Southampton carry clear historical and recent form advantages. The home side have dominated head-to-head matchups and show stronger overall performance metrics, though both teams have shown moderate goalscoring in recent games.
Key Factors to Consider
- Southampton’s last 5 matches show 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses averaging 0.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Sheffield Wednesday have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss with 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Southampton generally performs better at home with higher points per game in head-to-heads.
- Over 23 meetings since 1995, Southampton leads with 11 wins to Sheffield Wednesday’s 6, and 7 draws. Southampton has won 5 of the last 6 competitive meetings, indicating strong dominance. Average goals per match historically support low to moderate scoring.
- No major injury news reported affecting key players from either side, suggesting both teams will likely field near-full-strength squads.
- No significant external factors like weather or travel disruptions are reported. Match played at Southampton’s home ground adds an advantage to them.
- Southampton appear more motivated to secure a strong Championship standing with home advantage, while Sheffield Wednesday may play for points but have less impetus considering form and venue.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Southampton: -256, Draw: 370, Sheffield Wednesday: 560 | Southampton | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Southampton -1.25: -111, Sheffield Wednesday +1.25: -109 | Southampton -1.25 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.75: -123, Under 2.75: 103 | Under 2.75 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Southampton -10% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.75 22% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.75 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Southampton to win
Predicted Score: 2-0