Match Analysis: Southampton vs Portsmouth – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-14
- Time: 11:00 AM UTC
- Location: St. Mary's Stadium
Game Overview
Southampton and Portsmouth face off in the South Coast derby, a rivalry marked by historical competitiveness but recent disparity in form and league positions. Southampton has more wins historically but has struggled defensively this season, while Portsmouth has shown more resilience and better Asian handicap performance recently.
Key Factors to Consider
- Portsmouth has drawn 3 and won 1 of their last 5 matches with a decent defensive record, conceding 1.4 goals per game. Southampton has been less consistent, winning 2, drawing 1, and losing 2 recently, with a concerning average of 2.2 goals conceded per game.
- In 9 meetings since 2003, Southampton leads with 5 wins, Portsmouth 3 wins, and 2 draws. Recent direct matches show a mix of draws and narrow Southampton victories, indicating a closely contested rivalry.
- Current squad injury data is limited but no major absences reported for either side likely to impact key players significantly.
- Southampton’s home advantage at St. Mary’s Stadium should factor positively, but recent home form has been poor. The derby rivalry and proximity increase game intensity and motivation on both sides.
- Portsmouth’s motivation is high to prove competitive following their recent Championship survival, while Southampton aims to re-establish dominance and build momentum after relegation.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Southampton: -149, Portsmouth: 350, Draw: 280 | Southampton | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Spread | Southampton -0.75: -112, Portsmouth +75: -108 | Southampton -0.75 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: -115, Under 2.5: -105 | Under 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Southampton 0% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 17% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Southampton moneyline
Predicted Score: 1-0