Match Analysis: Southampton vs Middlesbrough – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-27
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: St Mary's Stadium, Southampton
Game Overview
Southampton host Middlesbrough in an EFL Championship clash where both teams have shown competitive form this season. Southampton have a slight historical edge in head-to-head records and currently hold a home advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- Southampton have secured 3 wins in their last 6 meetings with Middlesbrough, scoring an average of 1.5 goals per game recently. Middlesbrough have shown resilience with 2 wins in the last 6 meetings and scoring around 1.3 goals per game, but they are slightly behind in overall form and goal production this season.
- Southampton lead the recent head-to-head series with 9 wins to Middlesbrough's 7 in total historical matchups, and 8 draws. The matches tend to be moderately high scoring with average goals around 2.5 combined.
- No significant injury information provided; both squads appear close to full strength with key players active, including top scorers Ryan Manning and Tommy Conway for their respective teams.
- The game is played at Southamptonβs home venue, St Mary's Stadium, giving Southampton a familiar environment and crowd support. No adverse weather or external disruptions reported.
- Southampton, aiming to consolidate their home form early in the season, may be slightly more motivated given their position and home advantage, while Middlesbrough will look to capitalize on any gaps but are under pressure to avoid defeat on the road.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Southampton: 131, Middlesbrough: 180, Draw: 235 | Southampton | β β β ββ 68% |
Spread | Southampton -0.25: 105, Middlesbrough +25: -125 | Southampton -0.25 | β β β ββ 62% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: -115, Under 2.5: -105 | Under 2.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Southampton 32% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Southampton at 32% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Southampton to win on the moneyline with a close scoreline and a moderately low total goals outcome.
Predicted Score: 2-1