Match Analysis: Southampton vs Leicester City – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-25
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: St. Mary's Stadium
Game Overview
Southampton hosts Leicester City in a crucial EFL Championship fixture on Tuesday, 25 November 2025. Both teams are mid-table, with Leicester City holding a slight edge in points and form. The match is expected to be competitive, with both sides looking to push for a playoff spot. Recent head-to-head meetings have seen Leicester dominate, especially in away fixtures, but Southampton has shown resilience at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- Southampton has a record of 5-6-5 (W-D-L) with 21 points, struggling for consistency but showing flashes of form at home. Leicester City is 6-6-4 with 24 points, demonstrating better away results and a more balanced squad. Leicester has won 3 of their last 5 away games, while Southampton has only managed 2 wins in their last 5 home matches.
- Leicester City has dominated recent meetings, winning 3 of the last 5 encounters, including a 5-0 win in April 2024 and a 2-0 win in May 2025. Southampton's last win over Leicester was in March 2023. The last 5 meetings have seen Leicester score 12 goals to Southampton's 5.
- No major injuries reported for either side as of the latest updates. Both teams are expected to field their strongest available lineups.
- The match is being played at St. Mary's Stadium, which typically provides a strong home advantage for Southampton. However, Leicester City has shown they can perform well away from home, especially in recent seasons.
- Both teams are motivated to secure a playoff spot, with Leicester City currently in a better position. Southampton will be looking to close the gap and boost their playoff hopes with a win at home.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Leicester City: 235, Southampton: 106, Draw: 235 | Leicester City | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | Leicester City: 25 100, Southampton: -0.25 -120 | Leicester City +0.25 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 2.5 -108, Under: 2.5 -112 | Under 2.5 | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Leicester City 51% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 4% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Leicester City at 51% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Leicester City is favored to win this match based on recent form, head-to-head record, and away performance. However, Southampton's home advantage and the importance of the match could lead to a close contest. A narrow Leicester win or a draw is the most likely outcome.
Predicted Score: Southampton 1-2 Leicester City