Match Analysis: SC Telstar vs Excelsior – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-01
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: Telstar Home
Game Overview
Two relegation contenders clash in what is expected to be a high-stakes, potentially high-scoring affair. Both sides are in poor form but have delivered goals and competitive matches in recent H2H meetings. Telstar, playing at home, have statistically edged Excelsior in H2H, but neither side enters with momentum or form confidence.
Key Factors to Consider
- Telstar: 2 wins in last 10, Excelsior: 3 wins in last 10. Both teams struggle defensively, with Telstar conceding 1.7 and Excelsior 1.5 goals per game. Telstar slightly better at home (3 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses), Excelsior poor on the road (2 wins, 0 draws, 7 losses)[1]. Recent matches show both vulnerable at the back but capable of scoring.
- Last 8 meetings: 3 Telstar wins, 3 Excelsior wins, 2 draws. Average goals per match: 4.38. Over 2.5 goals in 7 of last 8 H2H matches. Last meeting (Feb 2025) ended 1-3 to Excelsior (Telstar home)[3]. Both teams consistently find the net in head-to-head contests.
- No major injury news available from current sources. Both expected to field near-optimal lineups.
- No significant weather or external issues reported.
- Both teams in direct relegation battle. Match is crucial for survival, likely leading to aggressive, open play as neither side can afford a draw. Expect both managers to set up offensively.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Telstar: 127, Excelsior: 190, Draw: 260 | Telstar | ★★★☆☆ 52% |
| Spread | Telstar -0.25: 100, Excelsior +25: -120 | Excelsior +0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
| Over/under | Over 2.75: -118, Under 2.75: -102 | Over 2.75 | ★★★★☆ 71% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | SC Telstar 7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.75 31% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.75 at 31% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 36.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Aggressive, open game with plenty of goalmouth action. Telstar’s home edge and Excelsior’s recent H2H form cancel out, but the pressure-cooker environment and poor defenses point to a goal fest. Value likely on goals markets, with only slim edge to Telstar on the moneyline.
Predicted Score: 2-2
