Match Analysis: SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 1:30 PM UTC
- Location: Europa-Park Stadion
Game Overview
SC Freiburg face VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga matchday 3 with Freiburg struggling at the bottom without points and Stuttgart mid-table with 3 points after a promising start.
Key Factors to Consider
- Freiburg has zero points and poor form so far, boosting the urgency for a win. Stuttgart holds better form, with 3 points and recent convincing wins including a dominant 4-0 victory over Freiburg this season.
- VfB Stuttgart have dominated recent head-to-heads, winning 3 of the last 5 including a 4-0 win on January 18, 2025, while Freiburg managed a 3-1 win in August 2024. Overall, Stuttgart holds the psychological and historical edge.
- Freiburg faces multiple doubts including key midfielders and attackers (Beste, Kyereh, Matanovic, Höfler). Stuttgart has three confirmed outs (Undav, Chabot, Stergiou) but key offensive players mostly fit or doubtful rather than out.
- Match played at Europa-Park Stadion gives Freiburg home advantage but with poor form, impact is limited. No significant weather or travel complications reported.
- Freiburg’s desperation for first win increases motivation but also pressure. Stuttgart aims to consolidate mid-table stability and continue positive start, lowering pressure and enabling confident play.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: +185, away: +138, draw: +255 | VfB Stuttgart | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Spread | home: -128, away: +108 | VfB Stuttgart -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Over/under | over: -108, under: -112 | Over 3 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | VfB Stuttgart 19% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 3 19% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 3 at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
VfB Stuttgart to win on the moneyline, as their superior form, psychological edge, and better squad health outweigh Freiburg’s home pressure. Expect a competitive match with goals from both sides.
Predicted Score: 2-3