Match Analysis: SC Freiburg vs TSG Hoffenheim – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-28
- Time: 1:30 PM UTC
- Location: Europa-Park Stadion
Game Overview
SC Freiburg and TSG Hoffenheim meet in a closely contested Bundesliga fixture with both teams level on points early in the season. Freiburg shows strong home form and confidence from recent wins, while Hoffenheim boasts a perfect away competitive record this season but exhibits defensive vulnerabilities.
Key Factors to Consider
- Freiburg won their last two Bundesliga matches and a recent Europa League game, signaling good form and confidence. Hoffenheim holds two wins and two losses but has conceded multiple goals in recent matches, indicating defensive fragility.
- Recent encounters have seen tight, high-scoring games, with the last meeting ending 3-2 to Freiburg. Both teams tend to have open, attacking matches.
- No significant injuries reported for either side; Freiburg can field a strong lineup with minor squad rotations expected due to Europa League.
- Home advantage favors Freiburg, playing at Europa-Park Stadion with good fan support and climatic familiarity. Both teams have medium-term motivation to establish themselves strongly in the league standings.
- Both teams are motivated to climb the table early in the season; Freiburg's recent winning streak adds confidence, while Hoffenheim looks to maintain unbeaten away record in competitive matches.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: +118, away: +212, draw: +260 | SC Freiburg | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Spread | SC Freiburg -0.25: -112, TSG Hoffenheim +25: -108 | SC Freiburg -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Over/under | over: -102, under: -118 | Over 3 goals | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | SC Freiburg 20% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 3 19% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: SC Freiburg at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: SC Freiburg to win; Spread: SC Freiburg -0.25; Over/Under: Over 3 goals
Predicted Score: 3-1