Match Analysis: SC Freiburg vs FC St. Pauli – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 2:30 PM UTC
- Location: Europa-Park Stadion
Game Overview
SC Freiburg faces FC St. Pauli in a Bundesliga match where Freiburg has been stronger recently and ranks higher in the league, while St. Pauli is in a poor run of form and struggling defensively.
Key Factors to Consider
- Freiburg sits 11th with 10 points from 9 matches, showing more stability than St. Pauli who is 15th with 7 points and six consecutive losses, including a heavy 4-0 home defeat. Freiburg recently won 3-1 in Europa League, indicating good momentum.
- The last Bundesliga meeting saw a 1-0 win for Freiburg. Historically, Freiburg generally outperforms St. Pauli in direct encounters.
- No major injury news significantly affecting either team, allowing both to field near full-strength lineups.
- Freiburg plays at home, with a positive atmosphere and recent European success boosting confidence. St. Pauliβs confidence is damaged by their poor results and defensive frailties.
- Freiburg aims to consolidate mid-table position and build momentum for European competition qualification, while St. Pauli looks to halt a damaging losing streak and avoid relegation danger.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -120, draw: +255, away: +335 | SC Freiburg | β β β β β 74% |
| Spread | home: -120, away: +100, spread: 50 | SC Freiburg -0.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | over: +100, under: -120, line: 2.5 | Under 2.5 goals | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | SC Freiburg 6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 10% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Freiburg to win the match, under 2.5 goals.
Predicted Score: 1-0