Match Analysis: Sassuolo vs Lazio – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-14
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: MAPEI Stadium – Città del Tricolore, Sassuolo
Game Overview
This Serie A fixture between Sassuolo and Lazio features a Lazio squad slightly favored by odds and recent performance but facing an improving Sassuolo side at home. Lazio holds an edge in recent encounters and league form, while Sassuolo seeks to rebound after two opening draws.
Key Factors to Consider
- Lazio comes in with a 1-0-1 record and 3 points, showing a slightly stronger start than Sassuolo who is 0-0-2 with 2 draws, scoring fewer goals. Lazio's form suggests better recent effectiveness in offense and defense.
- Lazio has dominated recent meetings with Sassuolo, boasting a 4-0-1 record in their last 5 clashes and the total goals going under 2.5 in all these matches, indicating low-scoring, tight contests.
- No major injury news reported for either side, suggesting both squads will be close to full strength for the match.
- The match is at Sassuolo's home ground, which could be a slight advantage, but Lazio's historical dominance and stronger squad depth mitigate home advantage.
- Lazio's slight points lead and recent victories provide extra motivation to maintain momentum, while Sassuolo must overcome early season struggles and capitalize on home support to get points.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Lazio: 107, Sassuolo: 260, Draw: 240 | Lazio | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Spread | Lazio -0.5: 108, Sassuolo +50: -128 | Lazio -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: -110, Under 2.5: -110 | Under 2.5 | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Lazio 4% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 34% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Lazio to win on the moneyline, covering the spread -0.5, with the match to finish under 2.5 goals.
Predicted Score: 1-0