Match Analysis: Sassuolo vs Genoa – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-03
 - Time: 5:30 PM UTC
 - Location: Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore
 
Game Overview
Sassuolo hosts Genoa in a Serie A fixture where Sassuolo is in better form and playing at home, while Genoa struggles both offensively and defensively, anchored at the bottom of the table.
Key Factors to Consider
- Sassuolo has won 3 of their last 5 matches and shows solid tactical discipline, particularly at home, while Genoa has lost 4 of their last 5 games, scoring just 4 goals in 9 matches and struggling on the road.
 - Recent encounters favor Sassuolo, including a recent 2-1 away win against Genoa, indicating their capability to break down Genoa’s defense.
 - No major injury updates were highlighted in the sources, suggesting both teams should be near full strength, maintaining their typical tactical setups.
 - Playing at Mapei Stadium provides Sassuolo with home advantage, supported by local fan presence and familiar pitch conditions.
 - Genoa is under significant pressure to avoid relegation, but current poor morale and recent results reduce their chances, while Sassuolo aims to consolidate a strong mid-table position.
 
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence | 
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Sassuolo +145, Genoa +220, Draw +200 | Sassuolo | ★★★★☆ 75% | 
| Spread | Sassuolo -0.25 +108, Genoa +25 -128 | Sassuolo -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 68% | 
| Over/under | Over 2 -118, Under 2 -102 | Under 2 | ★★★☆☆ 62% | 
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick | 
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Sassuolo 35% | 
| Spread | N/A | 
| Over/Under | Under 2 23% | 
🔥 Best Value Pick: Sassuolo at 35% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Sassuolo moneyline win; Sassuolo -0.25 spread; Under 2.5 goals total
Predicted Score: 2-1