Match Analysis: Sao Paulo vs Mirassol – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-24
- Time: 9:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo (Morumbi)
Game Overview
Sao Paulo, a dominant force in recent head-to-heads, faces Mirassol, who are in strong form and currently higher in recent league standings. Recent stats suggest Sao Paulo typically controls play at home, while Mirassol shows resilience and improvement in away fixtures.
Key Factors to Consider
- Sao Paulo is in good home form with recent wins at Morumbi. Mirassol has won their last five matches in Paulista A1, including two away. Both teams show solid but fluctuating form, with Sao Paulo generally stronger at home.
- Sao Paulo holds a clear advantage historically, with 9–10 wins, 1 loss, and 4 draws out of 14–15 matches. Average goals per match tend to be high (around 3.07), with Sao Paulo scoring more and conceding fewer.
- No significant injury news reported for either team at this time.
- Sao Paulo playing at home (Morumbi) with home crowd support. Weather is expected to be normal for the season.
- Both teams have solid league positions, with potential motivation to secure higher spots for tournament seeding or pride.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | {Sao Paulo: -152, Draw: 258, Mirassol: 495} | Sao Paulo Moneyline | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Spread | {Sao Paulo -0.75: -117, Mirassol +75: -103} | Sao Paulo -0.75 (win by at least 1 goal) | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | {Over 2.25: 100, Under 2.25: -120} | Over 2.25 Goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Sao Paulo 11% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.25 16% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.25 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Sao Paulo is favored due to home advantage and historical head-to-head dominance. However, Mirassol’s recent strong form suggests they could present a challenge. Expect a tight match with a likely home win, but Mirassol could keep it close.
Predicted Score: Sao Paulo 2-1 Mirassol