Match Analysis: Sao Paulo vs Flamengo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-06
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo (MorumBIS)
Game Overview
São Paulo hosts Flamengo in a high-stakes Brasileirão Serie A clash. Both teams are in strong form, but Flamengo holds a slight edge in recent results and league position. The match is expected to be tightly contested, with both sides favoring defensive organization and midfield control.
Key Factors to Consider
- Flamengo is second in the league and coming off a dominant 3-0 win, boasting strong attacking numbers and solid defense. São Paulo has won two in a row, including a 2-0 victory, but their overall season stats show lower scoring and higher defensive vulnerability compared to Flamengo.
- Flamengo won the last H2H 2-0, and in the last 43 meetings, Flamengo has 15 wins to São Paulo's 16, with 12 draws. Recent H2H favors Flamengo, especially in away games.
- No major injuries reported for either side. Both teams are fielding their strongest available lineups.
- The match is played at São Paulo's home stadium, but Flamengo has shown strong away form this season. Weather and pitch conditions are neutral.
- Flamengo is fighting for the title and has a clear edge in motivation. São Paulo is mid-table and less pressured, but will want to challenge a top team at home.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Flamengo: -105, Sao Paulo: 315, Draw: 220 | Flamengo | ★★★★☆ 74% |
| Spread | Flamengo: -0.5, Sao Paulo: 50 | Flamengo -0.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over: 2.25 110, Under: 2.25 -130 | Under 2.25 | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Flamengo 21% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 27% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 35.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Flamengo to win and under 2.5 goals in the match.
Predicted Score: São Paulo 0-1 Flamengo