Match Analysis: Santos vs Vitoria – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-21
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Vila Belmiro, Santos
Game Overview
Santos, ranked lower in Brasileiro Serie A, hosts Vitória, who have improved table position over the last year but remain in the relegation mix. Santos shows mild home advantage with patchy form, while Vitória has struggled badly on the road. Both sides are defensive, rarely seeing high-scoring games or both teams scoring. The match is likely to be tight, with Santos favored but vulnerable to continued scoring woes.
Key Factors to Consider
- Santos have lost 3 of their last 10 home matches, but have won 40%, drawing 30%–decent but not dominant. Their recent 4-match scoring drought is alarming. Vitória have lost 7 of their last 10 away, drawing 30%, winning 0%–statistically one of the worst away teams in the league[5].
- Santos leads historically, though Vitória’s last away win was over a decade ago in 2013. The average goal tally in their meetings is 3.8, but recent trends suggest a lower-scoring game this time[1].
- No critical team injuries mentioned in data, but Claudinho (Vitória) is on 4 yellow cards, Ze Ivaldo (Santos) on 3—watch for suspension risks.
- Santos' crowd could provide a modest edge. The fact neither side is safe from the relegation battle adds pressure.
- Both teams are desperate for points; Santos especially needs to end their goal drought. Vitória is fighting to stay clear of the bottom.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Santos -168, Vitoria 450, Draw 290 | Santos | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Spread | Santos -0.75 -128, Vitoria 75 108 | Vitoria +0.75 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over 2.25 -118, Under 2.25 -102 | Under 2.25 | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Santos -20% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 29% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 29% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Santos to edge a low-scoring, nervy match at home, but neither team is in form. Under 2.5 goals is the strongest statistical play.
Predicted Score: Santos 1-0 Vitoria