Match Analysis: Santos vs Vasco da Gama – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-17
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Santos Home Stadium
Game Overview
Santos and Vasco da Gama are closely matched in the Brazil Campeonato with Santos slightly favored as the home team. Both teams have struggled in recent form but Santos hold a minor edge in recent head-to-head and home advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- Santos currently ranks 15th with 5 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, showing inconsistency, while Vasco da Gama is 17th with 4 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses. Santos has a slightly better goal difference (-4 vs -5). Recent matches show both teams underperforming, but Santos have home advantage.
- In their last 10 meetings, Santos has won 5 times, Vasco 3, and 2 ended in draws. Historically, 70% of their encounters see over 1.5 goals, with 50% going over 2.5 goals, indicating moderate scoring tendencies.
- No significant injury reports available indicating major absences for either side, suggesting lineups will be close to full strength.
- No notable external factors such as weather or travel issues affecting the match; venue is Santos's home ground which benefits them.
- Both teams are entrenched in the bottom half of the table, fighting to avoid relegation. Santos may have slightly more motivation playing at home and aiming for points to improve standings.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Santos -107, Draw 245, Vasco 290 | Santos | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | Santos -0.5 -105, Vasco +50 -115 | Santos -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Over/under | Over 2.25 -108, Under 2.25 -112 | Over 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Santos 6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.25 8% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.25 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Santos to win; Spread: Santos -0.5; Over/Under: Over 2.25 goals
Predicted Score: 2-1 Santos