Match Analysis: Santos vs Mirassol – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-20
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Estádio Urbano Caldeira (Vila Belmiro)
Game Overview
Santos hosts Mirassol in a Brasileirão Serie A clash with both teams in contrasting form. Mirassol sits near the top of the table, while Santos struggles near the relegation zone. The match promises tactical tension as Mirassol looks to maintain their strong campaign and Santos fights for survival.
Key Factors to Consider
- Mirassol has won 5 of their last 7 league matches, scoring 54 goals and boasting a +21 goal difference. Santos has lost 4 of their last 6, including losing the first half in 4 of those. Mirassol’s attacking form and defensive solidity are clear advantages.
- Mirassol leads recent H2H with 5 wins to Santos’ 2, and 4 draws. Mirassol has won 5 of the last 10 meetings, showing consistent edge.
- No major injuries reported for either side, but Santos’ squad depth is a concern given their relegation battle and fixture congestion.
- Santos is under pressure at home, but Mirassol’s away form is strong. Weather is expected to be clear, with no travel or pitch issues.
- Mirassol is fighting for a top-tier finish, while Santos is battling to avoid relegation. Both teams are highly motivated, but Mirassol’s momentum is stronger.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: 106, away: 245, draw: 245 | Mirassol | Not available |
| Spread | home: -125, away: 105 | Mirassol +0.25 | Not available |
| Over/under | over: -102, under: -118 | Over 2.5 | Not available |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Mirassol 90% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 19% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Mirassol at 90% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 36.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Mirassol to win outright. Their superior form, attacking output, and recent dominance over Santos outweigh the home advantage. Santos’ defensive fragility and poor first-half record make them vulnerable.
Predicted Score: Santos 1-2 Mirassol