Match Analysis: San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City SC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-21
- Time: 2:30 AM UTC
- Location: PayPal Park, San Jose, USA
Game Overview
San Jose Earthquakes host St. Louis City SC in an MLS regular-season matchup with San Jose slightly favored due to home advantage, stronger recent form, and superior expected goals metrics.
Key Factors to Consider
- San Jose Earthquakes (9-8-13) have 35 points, ranking 9th, with an average of 1.17 points per game and the highest expected goals (56.2) in the league, but also concede heavily with a goal differential of zero (55 scored, 55 conceded). St. Louis City SC (6-7-17) are lower ranked 14th with 25 points and have a more defensive profile.
- They have met once this season; San Jose has home advantage and historically performs better at PayPal Park. Recent H2H shows a slight edge to San Jose.
- No major injury reports available for either side; lineups are not yet confirmed, suggesting no significant disruptions expected.
- San Jose plays at home in PayPal Park, familiar conditions and fan support favor them. Both teams have had congested schedules but San Jose appears more consistent in form.
- San Jose fights to consolidate playoff positioning with a stronger playoff standing and higher points total, while St. Louis City SC looks to improve from a lower position, potentially more cautious on the road.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: -133, away: 295, draw: 330 | San Jose Earthquakes | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | San Jose -0.5: -139, St. Louis +50: 104 | San Jose Earthquakes -0.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | over 3.5: -120, under 3.5: -110 | Over 3.5 goals | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | San Jose Earthquakes 2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 3.5 10% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 3.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
San Jose Earthquakes to win the Moneyline, cover -0.5 spread, and for the match to go over 3.5 goals.
Predicted Score: 3-1