Match Analysis: San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Dallas – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-16
- Time: 2:30 AM UTC
- Location: PayPal Park, San Jose
Game Overview
Two bottom-half MLS teams clash, with San Jose (18th) hosting FC Dallas (24th). San Jose is favored at home, with a strong scoring record but leaky defense. FC Dallas struggles defensively and has been consistently an underdog, rarely pulling upsets at current long odds.
Key Factors to Consider
- San Jose has scored 42 goals in 22 games (3rd in MLS) but has conceded 37 (23rd). Dallas has scored 27 in 21 games (19th) and conceded 39 (26th). Both teams are struggling defensively and have poor recent form.
- San Jose recently beat Dallas 4-2 away on June 28, 2025[4]. Historically, recent matchups have been high-scoring and competitive.
- No major injuries reported based on available data. Assume both squads are relatively at full strength.
- No significant external factors such as weather or stadium issues are noted. Home advantage for San Jose is notable given their offensive power and Dallas’s poor away record.
- Both teams are fighting to avoid the bottom of the table. San Jose likely motivated to capitalize on home advantage and Dallas’s struggles.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | San Jose -150, Dallas +340, Draw +350 | San Jose Earthquakes | ★★★☆☆ 67% |
Spread | San Jose -0.75 (-122), Dallas +75 (+102) | San Jose Earthquakes (-0.75) | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Over/under | Over 3.5 (-102), Under 3.5 (-118) | Over 3.5 | ★★★★☆ 71% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | San Jose Earthquakes 8% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 3.5 29% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 3.5 at 29% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
San Jose Earthquakes to win in a high-scoring game, with FC Dallas unlikely to upset given underdog history and poor away form.
Predicted Score: San Jose Earthquakes 3 – 2 FC Dallas