Match Analysis: RC Lens vs Lyon – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-16
- Time: 3:00 PM UTC
- Location: Stade Bollaert-Delelis (RC Lens home)
Game Overview
The Ligue 1 clash between RC Lens and Lyon features a home side that has been struggling offensively compared to Lyon's more prolific attack. Lyon holds a historical advantage, winning a majority of their past encounters, although Lens has managed some victories and draws at home. Recent form suggests Lyon is in slightly better shape offensively and defensively.
Key Factors to Consider
- Lyon has won 3 of their last 5 matches, drawing 1 and losing 1, averaging 2.8 goals scored and conceding 2.2 per match. Lens won 2 of their last 5, losing 3, with an average of 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match. Lyon's Asian Handicap win rate in recent games is 60%, compared to Lens's 20%, indicating stronger performance and consistency.
- Across 29 to 30 games since 2003, Lyon has 15 wins, Lens 6 or 7 wins depending on source, and 8 draws. Lyon averages about 1.6 goals per game against Lens's 1.0. Lens tends to perform slightly better at home, but Lyon's dominance in overall historical results and goal averages is clear.
- No specific injury data is provided in the search results for either team at this time, so no adjustments can be made based on injury impacts.
- The match is at Lens's home ground, Stade Bollaert-Delelis, which can give Lens some home advantage. Other external factors such as weather or referee impact are not provided.
- As an early season Ligue 1 fixture, both teams likely aim to secure early points; Lyon's slightly better recent form could translate into higher motivation to continue winning, while Lens aims to capitalize on home advantage for improved season start.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Lyon: 200, RC Lens: 130, Draw: 255 | RC Lens win | β β β ββ 55% |
| Spread | Lyon: -0.25 at -120, RC Lens: +25 at 100 | RC Lens -0.25 | β β β ββ 53% |
| Over/under | Over 2.75: -113, Under 2.75: -107 | Over 2.75 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | RC Lens 15% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.75 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: RC Lens at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Lyon is predicted to edge a close match due to superior form, historical dominance, and better scoring rates, but Lens's home advantage suggests a competitive encounter with potential for a draw or narrow Lyon win.
Predicted Score: RC Lens 2 – 1 Lyon