Match Analysis: Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-26
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio de Vallecas
Game Overview
Rayo Vallecano hosts Deportivo Alavés in a mid-table La Liga clash, with Rayo currently in better form and enjoying home advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- Rayo Vallecano has scored 8 goals in their last 5 matches, showing solid attacking form, while Alavés scored 5 goals in the same span and have been awarded the most penalties this season (3).
- Rayo Vallecano have won the last two matches against Alavés including a recent 2-0 away win, signaling a psychological edge and tactical superiority.
- No significant injuries reported that would impact starting lineups heavily for either side.
- Match played at Rayo's Estadio de Vallecas with supportive home crowd environment; Alavés tends to dominate aerial duels but may struggle breaking down Rayo's organized defense.
- Both teams are mid-table but Rayo Vallecano is pushing for higher positioning and European contention, thus displaying higher motivation.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: +103, away: +315, draw: +212 | Rayo Vallecano | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | home: +102, away: -122 | Rayo Vallecano -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | over: -115, under: -105 | Under 2 goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rayo Vallecano 12% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2 17% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Rayo Vallecano to win (moneyline), Rayo Vallecano -0.5 on spread, Under 2 goals
Predicted Score: 1-0