Match Analysis: PSV Eindhoven vs Ajax – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-21
- Time: 12:30 PM UTC
- Location: Philips Stadion, Eindhoven, Netherlands
Game Overview
A key Eredivisie clash between PSV Eindhoven and Ajax, both teams showing strong recent form but Ajax slightly edged in resilience on the road while PSV boast high scoring at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- PSV recently won 5-3 vs NEC Nijmegen and lost 3-1 to Union Saint-Gilloise in Champions League; Ajax recently won 3-1 vs PEC Zwolle but lost 2-0 to Inter Milan in Champions League.
- In the last 46 meetings, Ajax have a slight edge with 20 away wins against 16 home wins for PSV. The last meeting ended 2-0 to PSV with dominant possession and shots on target.
- No explicit injury data available, but both teams anticipate near-full strength squads given match importance.
- Both clubs had midweek Champions League matches, potentially impacting stamina; PSV playing at home gives a physical and psychological advantage.
- High stakes in the Eredivisie standings with both teams motivated to secure top positions; PSV may be slightly more motivated to leverage home advantage.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | PSV -149, Ajax +365, Draw +300 | PSV Eindhoven | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | PSV -0.75 -118, Ajax +75 -102 | PSV Eindhoven -0.75 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 3.25 -120, Under 3.25 +100 | Over 3.25 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | PSV Eindhoven -8% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 3.25 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 3.25 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
PSV Eindhoven to win on the moneyline, with spread favoring PSV -0.75 and expecting over 3.25 goals scored in total.
Predicted Score: 3-2