Match Analysis: Preston North End vs Middlesbrough – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 11:30 AM UTC
- Location: Deepdale, Preston, England
Game Overview
Middlesbrough, sitting 1st in the EFL Championship, hosts Preston North End, ranked 9th. Middlesbrough boasts strong recent form with 4 wins in their last 5, solid defense conceding 1.2 goals per match, and a favorable overall head-to-head record against Preston. Preston has a mixed recent run with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses recently, scoring more goals on average but conceding more than Middlesbrough.
Key Factors to Consider
- Middlesbrough is in excellent form with 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 matches, conceding fewer goals (1.2 per match) than Preston, who have 2 wins and 2 losses with a higher conceding rate (2.0 per match). Middlesbrough's top league position reflects consistent performance.
- In 25 meetings since 2006, Middlesbrough leads with 11 wins to Preston's 7, with 8 draws. Recent H2H matches favor Middlesbrough, including 4-0 away victories. Preston's head-to-head win percentage against Middlesbrough is lower.
- No explicit injury data is available in the current dataset; however, no major key player absences have been reported, suggesting both teams are near full strength.
- Match is at Preston's home stadium Deepdale, which could offer slight advantage, but Middlesbrough's top form and motivation as league leaders counterbalance home advantage.
- Middlesbrough aims to maintain top spot early in the season, providing high motivation. Preston, mid-table, seeks consistency and a higher league push but with less urgency compared to Middlesbrough.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Middlesbrough: 141, Preston North End: 188, Draw: 212 | Middlesbrough | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Middlesbrough: -132, Preston North End: 111 | Middlesbrough 0 spread (win or draw to cover) | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 2.25: -112, Under 2.25: -108 | Under 2.25 goals | β β β ββ 64% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Middlesbrough 33% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Middlesbrough at 33% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Middlesbrough to win on the moneyline, with a tightly contested match expected and a lower total goals tally due to Middlesbroughβs solid defense.
Predicted Score: 1-0 Middlesbrough