Match Analysis: Portsmouth vs Wrexham AFC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-05
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: Fratton Park
Game Overview
Portsmouth host Wrexham AFC in a midweek EFL Championship fixture at Fratton Park. Portsmouth enter the match in poor form, having lost their last three games and struggling to create clear chances, while Wrexham have shown resilience and attacking threat, highlighted by Kieffer Moore's recent hat-trick against Coventry. Both teams are seeking to improve their league positions, with Wrexham showing more momentum and confidence lately.
Key Factors to Consider
- Portsmouth have lost three consecutive matches, including a heavy 4-0 defeat to Birmingham City, where they managed no shots on target despite 57% possession. Their home form is inconsistent, with only two wins in seven home games and just six goals scored. Wrexham, meanwhile, have won their last game 3-2 against Coventry, with Kieffer Moore scoring a hat-trick. Their away form is mixed, but they have shown the ability to score and compete against strong sides. Wrexham's midfield and attack look more dynamic, while Portsmouth's defense has been vulnerable.
- Recent head-to-head data is limited, but Wrexham's recent form and attacking prowess suggest they can challenge Portsmouth. Portsmouth's struggles against top sides and Wrexham's ability to score in tough fixtures indicate a competitive matchup.
- No major injuries reported for either side. Both teams are expected to field their strongest available lineups.
- Portsmouth's home form has been disappointing, with only two wins in seven matches. Wrexham have shown resilience and attacking threat, especially with Kieffer Moore in form. The match is being played midweek, which may affect squad rotation and freshness.
- Portsmouth are under pressure to improve their form and avoid a relegation battle. Wrexham are motivated to build on their recent win and climb the table, with confidence high after their victory over Coventry.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: 141, away: 188, draw: 212 | Wrexham AFC | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Spread | home: -0.25, away: 25 | Wrexham AFC +0.25 | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Over/under | over: 2.25, under: 2.25 | Over 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Portsmouth 18% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.25 7% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Portsmouth at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Wrexham AFC are favored to avoid defeat, with their recent form and attacking threat giving them an edge. Portsmouth's struggles at home and inability to create chances suggest they may find it difficult to win. A draw or narrow Wrexham win is the most likely outcome.
Predicted Score: 1-2
