Match Analysis: Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-09
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Subaru Park, Chester, PA
Game Overview
Philadelphia Union faces Toronto FC in an MLS Eastern Conference clash with Philadelphia highly favored at home. The Union are in strong form, ranking 4th in expected goals and maintaining a solid defensive record. Toronto FC struggles this season, positioned 25th overall and with poor away performances.
Key Factors to Consider
- Philadelphia Union boasts a strong season with 50 points from 25 matches, averaging 2.00 points per game, scoring 43 goals and conceding 24. Toronto FC has struggled with only 5 wins, scoring 25 goals and conceding 32, ranking near the bottom of the league.
- Recent matchups have favored Philadelphia, who have been dominant at home against Toronto. Toronto FC has had difficulty scoring and winning on the road versus the Union.
- No significant injury information suggests key players are missing on either side; both goalkeepers, Andre Blake and Sean Johnson, are expected to start.
- Philadelphia plays at home in favorable conditions at Subaru Park. No notable external disruptions have been reported that could affect match dynamics.
- Philadelphia Union is motivated to maintain their playoff positioning and form against a struggling Toronto side with less at stake, increasing the home side's motivation
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Philadelphia Union: -212, Toronto FC: 530, Draw: 350 | Philadelphia Union | β β β β β 75% |
Spread | Philadelphia Union (-1.5): 120, Toronto FC (+1.5): -161 | Philadelphia Union -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: -164, Under 2.5: 122 | Over 2.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Philadelphia Union 3% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.5 -3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Philadelphia Union at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Philadelphia Union to win on the moneyline, with the match likely finishing with total goals going over 2.5.
Predicted Score: 3-1