Match Analysis: Peñarol Montevideo vs Racing Club – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-13
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Estadio Campeon del Siglo, Montevideo, Uruguay
Game Overview
This Copa Libertadores round of 16 match features Peñarol Montevideo hosting Racing Club Avellaneda. Peñarol boasts strong home form and defensive solidity, while Racing arrives with good away momentum and attacking potency. The game is likely to be carefully contested with tactical discipline and moments of individual skill.
Key Factors to Consider
- Peñarol holds a superior recent win rate (~75.8%) compared to Racing (~66.6%). Racing has won five of their last six away matches with an average of 2.4 goals per game recently, showing strong offensive ability. Peñarol concedes few goals at home, maintaining only 3 goals allowed in last six Libertadores matches.
- Previous matchups indicate a tight competition with Peñarol slightly favored. Probabilities from various sources give Peñarol around 39-43% win chance, Racing around 33-39%, and draws roughly 19-31%.
- No critical injury news reported for either team; lineups expected near full strength.
- Home advantage at Estadio Campeon del Siglo with energetic crowd support favors Peñarol. Weather and pitch conditions typical and unlikely to pose issues.
- Both teams highly motivated; Peñarol for home advantage to take a lead in the tie, Racing aiming to maintain their excellent away form and control the tie early.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Peñarol 170, Racing 180, Draw 210 | Peñarol Montevideo | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | Peñarol 0 -120, Racing 0 -110 | Peñarol Montevideo +0 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over 2 -125, Under 2 -105 | Over 2 goals | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Peñarol Montevideo 13% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2 -6% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Peñarol Montevideo at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Peñarol Montevideo to win on moneyline, with a close, high-tempo match featuring goals from both sides but ultimately home grit prevailing.
Predicted Score: 2-1