Match Analysis: Palmeiras vs Flamengo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-25
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Palmeiras Home Stadium
Game Overview
This Brasileirão match features Palmeiras hosting Flamengo, two of Brazil's top teams with a long-standing rivalry. Palmeiras has a slight historical edge at home, while Flamengo enters in solid recent form. The match is expected to be tightly contested with both sides capable of scoring.
Key Factors to Consider
- Palmeiras has won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.6 goals and conceding just 0.2 per game, showing defensive solidity but some recent inconsistency. Flamengo is in better recent form with 3 wins and 2 draws, scoring 1.0 goal per match and conceding 0.6 on average, displaying resilience and stability.
- In their last 45 meetings since 2004, Palmeiras won 15, Flamengo 14, and 16 matches ended in draws. The teams are evenly matched historically with slight variations depending on venue. Average goals per game in their recent encounters hover around 2.5-3, indicating a moderate-scoring trend.
- Current data do not specify notable injuries for either side, suggesting both teams could field close to their strongest starting elevens.
- No major external factors reported affecting the match day conditions. Match played in Palmeiras home ground, giving them slight advantage.
- Both teams are motivated to secure points to advance in standings, with Palmeiras hoping to capitalize on home advantage and Flamengo aiming to continue their unbeaten recent streak.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Flamengo: 230, Palmeiras: 135, Draw: 210 | Palmeiras Win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | Flamengo: 25 -118, Palmeiras: -0.25 -102 | Palmeiras -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over: 2 105, Under: 2 -125 | Under 2 goals | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Palmeiras 29% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2 26% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Palmeiras at 29% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Palmeiras to edge a close contest with a narrow win due to home strength and slightly better defensive record.
Predicted Score: Palmeiras 2 – 1 Flamengo