Match Analysis: Oviedo vs Levante – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-04
- Time: 12:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere
Game Overview
This is a La Liga regular season matchup where Real Oviedo hosts Levante. Oviedo enters as a slight favorite based on simulations and current form, but the teams are closely matched with moderate draw probability.
Key Factors to Consider
- Oviedo has a slightly better recent form with a win probability of about 41%, Levante around 32%, and draws at 26%, according to advanced simulations.
- Recent encounters have been competitive, with balanced results indicating a possible draw or narrow win for Oviedo. Both teams have scored in many prior matches.
- No major injury reports impacting key players for either side have been highlighted, suggesting both teams should field near-full strength lineups.
- The match is played at Oviedo's home stadium, which favors the home team slightly in terms of comfort and crowd support.
- Both teams sit mid-table and strongly seek points to improve standings in early season, implying high motivation but no clear urgency difference.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Oviedo +147, Levante +185, Draw +235 | Oviedo | β β β ββ 62% |
Spread | Oviedo 0 -128, Levante 0 +108 | Oviedo 0 | β β β ββ 60% |
Over/under | Over 2.25 -105, Under 2.25 -115 | Under 2.25 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Oviedo 19% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Oviedo at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Oviedoβs slight edge in form, home advantage, and balanced competitive dynamics, a narrow home win is the most value bet across the markets.
Predicted Score: 1-0