Match Analysis: Orlando City SC vs Nashville SC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-20
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Inter&Co Stadium, Orlando, FL, United States
Game Overview
Orlando City SC and Nashville SC are meeting for the third time this MLS season. Nashville SC dominated the previous encounter with a 5-1 away win at Geodis Park. Nashville can clinch a playoff spot with a win in this fixture and will be aiming to get closer to their best-ever MLS season with three games remaining. Orlando City SC, playing at home, seeks redemption and to improve their standing as the two sides are closely matched in the league.
Key Factors to Consider
- Nashville SC have 15 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses with 50 points, showing strong form. Key players like Hany Mukhtar and Sam Surridge contribute significant goals and assists. Orlando City SC have a solid record of 13 wins, 9 draws, and 7 losses accumulating 48 points. Orlando struggled in recent matches including a heavy loss to Nashville and a loss to LA but showed resilience with a draw recently. Both teams have offensive firepower but defense consistency varies.
- The head-to-head record is close with Orlando City SC leading slightly: 6 wins to Nashville's 5 with 5 draws in 16 meetings. Nashvilleβs 5-1 win in their last meeting is notable, but overall the encounters have been competitive.
- No specific injury reports have been reported for key players from either side in the available data, indicating both teams might be near full strength.
- Weather conditions are expected to be warm and partly cloudy with minimal wind and zero rain chance, which should not hinder gameplay. The match is played at Orlando's home ground, which might provide a slight advantage to Orlando City SC.
- Nashville SC have strong motivation to secure a playoff spot and improve their season highlight, potentially driving high intensity and focused performance. Orlando City SC's motivation lies in avenging their recent defeat and solidifying their playoff positioning.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nashville SC: 242, Orlando City SC: -105, Draw: 290 | Orlando City SC | β β β ββ 55% |
| Spread | Nashville SC +50: -122, Orlando City SC -0.5: -109 | Orlando City SC -0.5 | β β β ββ 53% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -179, Under 2.5: 134 | Over 2.5 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Orlando City SC 2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 -3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Orlando City SC at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Nashville SC's recent dominance in the last meeting, strong motivation to clinch playoffs, and slightly better league standing, they hold a slight edge. However, playing at home and the importance of the match to Orlando suggest a tightly contested game potentially resulting in a draw or narrow Nashville win.
Predicted Score: 2-1 Orlando City SC