Match Analysis: Nottingham Forest vs Malmo FF – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-27
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: City Ground, Nottingham, England
Game Overview
Nottingham Forest host Malmö FF in the UEFA Europa League league phase at City Ground, Nottingham on November 27, 2025. Nottingham Forest rank 23rd and have a relatively strong home form under manager Sean Dyche, being unbeaten in their last three home matches. Malmö FF, ranking 33rd, have struggled in recent European away fixtures, suffering heavy losses and are seeking their first win in the competition. The match carries historical weight as a repeat encounter of notable European fixtures between the two clubs.
Key Factors to Consider
- Nottingham Forest have performed better in domestic and European competitions recently, including an unbeaten home streak under Sean Dyche, and a strong Premier League showing with a recent win against Liverpool. Malmö FF have endured a difficult European campaign with heavy away defeats (5-0 and 3-0) and are coming off a modest 2-1 home win in Sweden after a disappointing domestic season finish.
- Historically, Malmö FF have played English opposition 11 times with nine defeats and only one win against Nottingham Forest in UEFA competition (a 2-1 home win in 1995). This will be a rare European meeting with Forest holding a superior record and strong home advantage.
- No specific injury reports were mentioned in the provided data. However, a notable event was Morgan Gibbs-White missing a first-half penalty for Forest in recent matches, indicating some pressure on key players. Current suspensions or injury updates would require live monitoring closer to match day.
- Malmö FF’s first competitive match in 18 days could affect their match fitness and sharpness negatively compared to Forest who are regularly competing in the Premier League. Weather conditions and stadium atmosphere at City Ground could favor the home team. Crowd support and travel fatigue may influence Malmö's performance.
- Forest remain in contention for last-16 qualification and are motivated to secure a win to improve their standing. Malmö FF, struggling in the league phase and with no wins so far, are highly motivated to avoid elimination but face strong opposition at an away ground.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Malmo FF: 1125, Nottingham Forest: -460, Draw: 535 | Nottingham Forest win | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | Malmo FF: 1.75 -110, Nottingham Forest: -1.75 -110 | Nottingham Forest -1.75 | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | Over: 3 100, Under: 3 -120 | Under 3 goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nottingham Forest -17% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 3 19% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 3 at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Nottingham Forest is favored to win at home due to superior recent form, historical advantage, and stronger motivation. Malmö FF may struggle with recent away form and lack of competitive matches recently. A Forest victory by a margin of 2 goals or more is probable.
Predicted Score: Nottingham Forest 2 – 0 Malmö FF