Match Analysis: New York Red Bulls vs Columbus Crew SC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-30
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison, NJ
Game Overview
The New York Red Bulls will host Columbus Crew SC in an MLS regular season match. Both teams have similar standing around mid-table with Columbus slightly ahead on points. The Red Bulls have a goal differential of +5 from 42 goals scored and 37 conceded, and a save rate of 69.7%. Columbus Crew holds a current record of 12-9-5. Both teams have had injury challenges and are expected to field near full-strength lineups.
Key Factors to Consider
- New York Red Bulls rank 14th in MLS with 39 points and have an xG of 38.1 against an xGA of 41.0. They have conceded 37 goals with 8 clean sheets this season. Columbus Crew holds a slightly better form and points tally (12-9-5), showing a resilient defense with goalkeeper Patrick Schulte starting.
- Historically tight matches between these teams have resulted in close scorelines. Recent data and previews suggest a cautious and low-risk approach from both sides, indicating a likely draw or narrow margin of victory.
- New York misses Lewis Morgan (thigh strain), Anthony Marcucci, and Cameron Harper (knee injuries). Columbus Crew will likely miss captain Darlington Nagbe (torso issue), Mohamed Farsi (pelvic strain), and Rudy Camacho (thigh problem).
- The match is played at the home stadium of New York Red Bulls, Sports Illustrated Stadium. Kickoff time is Saturday, August 30, 7:30 PM Eastern (23:30 UTC), conditions expected to be typical for the venue. Media coverage via MLS Season Pass on Apple TV.
- Both teams are mid-table and looking to secure crucial points to improve their standings. Motivation is medium-high but tempered by recent injuries and lack of strong confidence, suggesting neither team will take extreme risks.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Columbus Crew SC: 150, New York Red Bulls: 162, Draw: 260 | Draw | β β β ββ 60% |
| Spread | Columbus Crew SC: -0.5 @ 142, New York Red Bulls: +50 @ -192 | New York Red Bulls +0.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -167, Under 2.5: 125 | Under 2.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | New York Red Bulls 37% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 40% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 40% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 31.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
A cautious game with balanced chances that likely ends in a draw or narrow win. Prediction is for a 1-1 draw reflecting the teams' defensive solidity and current form.
Predicted Score: 1-1