Match Analysis: New York City FC vs Nashville SC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-17
- Time: 9:00 PM UTC
- Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Game Overview
The match features New York City FC hosting Nashville SC in an MLS clash. Nashville SC holds a stronger recent form and higher league standing, while New York City FC plays at home with a solid defensive record but lower offensive output.
Key Factors to Consider
- Nashville SC has a better points-per-game average (1.81) and goal difference (+15) compared to NYCFCβs 1.58 points and a goal difference of +5. Nashville boasts a slightly stronger offense at 34 goals scored versus NYCFC's 34 but with better defensive metrics. NYCFC has a 29.2% clean sheet rate with 7 shutouts, while Nashville's defensive record is comparable but less consistent.
- Recent head-to-head matches are competitive with no dominant trend favoring either team, suggesting a balanced tactical contest.
- No major injury setbacks reported for either side impacting key players, both starting goalkeepers are expected to play – Matt Freese for NYCFC and Joe Willis for Nashville.
- Playing at Yankee Stadium provides NYCFC with home advantage; however, the stadium has recently hosted higher scoring games which may encourage offensive play. Weather conditions are expected to be stable.
- Nashville SC is motivated by maintaining their high league position while NYCFC aim to improve their standing and capitalize on home advantage, adding competitive tension.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | NYCFC 141, Nashville SC 189, Draw 234 | Nashville SC | β β β ββ 65% |
Spread | NYCFC -0.5 134, Nashville SC +50 -179 | NYCFC +0.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Over/under | Over 2.5 -123, Under 2.5 -108 | Over 2.5 | β β β β β 72% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | New York City FC 27% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.5 9% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: New York City FC at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Nashville SC to win on the moneyline, NYCFC +0.5 on the spread, and over 2.5 goals on total goals market.
Predicted Score: 2-3