Match Analysis: New York City FC vs Nashville SC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-17
- Time: 9:00 PM UTC
- Location: Yankee Stadium
Game Overview
This MLS match is between New York City FC hosting Nashville SC at Yankee Stadium. Both teams have been closely matched historically. New York City FC enters in better recent form, while Nashville SC has struggled to win recently. The match carries midfield and forward battles with key players like Adrian Alonso MartΓnez Batista for NYCFC and Sam Surridge for Nashville influencing outcomes.
Key Factors to Consider
- New York City FC has the better recent performance with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in their last 5 matches, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match. Nashville SC has not won in their last 5 with 2 draws and 3 losses, also averaging 2.2 goals scored but conceding 1.4 per match.
- Historically, in 8 meetings since 2019, both teams have won 3 games each with 2 draws. Recent direct encounters favor Nashville 3 wins to NYCFC's 2, with 2 draws. Goals scored in H2H are even at about 10 each for both teams overall.
- For New York City FC, goalkeeper Matthew Freese is injured. Nashville SC has the injured winger Jacob Shaffelburg unavailable. Both teams have relatively stable lineups aside from these absences.
- The match is played at Yankee Stadium, providing a home advantage for New York City FC. Weather and pitch conditions are expected normal as per mid-August in New York.
- New York City FC, currently in better form and at home, likely has higher motivation to secure 3 points and improve league standings. Nashville SC, struggling for wins, will be motivated to halt their poor run and gain away points.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New York City FC: 141, Nashville SC: 189, Draw: 234 | New York City FC win | β β β β β 70% |
| Spread | New York City FC -0.5: 134, Nashville SC +50: -179 | New York City FC -0.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -123, Under 2.5: -108 | Over 2.5 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | New York City FC 40% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 -0% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: New York City FC at 40% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 28.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
New York City FC is favored to win due to better recent form, home advantage, and balanced head-to-head record. Nashville SC's win probability is lower, but a draw is plausible given their defensive improvements.
Predicted Score: 2-1