Match Analysis: New York City FC vs Inter Miami CF – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-24
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Citi Field, Flushing, Queens, USA
Game Overview
New York City FC hosts Inter Miami CF in a tightly contested MLS matchup with NYCFC slightly favored due to home advantage and recent form.
Key Factors to Consider
- NYCFC holds 53 points from 30 games and is unbeaten in 7 meetings versus Inter Miami (3W, 4D). They have scored 10 goals in their last 5 matches but have not kept a clean sheet in 12 games. Inter Miami has 49 points in 27 games with a middling recent record.
- NYCFC is undefeated in the last 7 meetings against Inter Miami CF (3 wins, 4 draws), showing psychological edge and tactical matchup advantage.
- NYCFC is missing Keaton Parks, Malachi Jones, and Nico Cavallo due to injuries. Inter Miami is without Telasco Segovia (suspension), Allen Obando, David Ruiz, and Fabrice Picault due to injuries, which significantly impacts their lineup depth.
- The match at Citi Field provides NYCFC home advantage which has been strong (11-0-4 home record). Inter Miami performs less consistently away (6-4-4). Weather and travel do not appear to markedly affect either side.
- NYCFC is motivated to secure a higher playoff seeding with more points after recent mixed results. Inter Miami needs points to maintain playoff position but has a slightly lower urgency and more squad disruptions.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | 124 | New York City FC | β β β β β 70% |
Spread | 119 | New York City FC -0.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | -156 | Under 3.5 goals | β β β β β 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | New York City FC 28% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 3.5 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: New York City FC at 28% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
New York City FC to win on the moneyline
Predicted Score: 2-1