Match Analysis: New York City FC vs Columbus Crew SC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-09
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Citi Field, Flushing, Queens, USA
Game Overview
New York City FC (NYCFC) hosts Columbus Crew SC in an MLS matchup at Citi Field. NYCFC has a slightly better defensive record but lower points per game, while Columbus shows strong recent form and a slightly better goal differential, creating a balanced contest.
Key Factors to Consider
- Columbus Crew currently has 44 points with a solid defensive save rate of 60.4% and ranks 6th in MLS, while NYCFC has 38 points with a higher save percentage of 71.8% but lower overall points per game (1.58). Columbus averages 2.06 goals per game versus NYCFCβs 1.50, but NYCFC has a better shutout percentage at 29.2%.
- Recent head-to-head data and expert predictions lean slightly towards New York City FC with a 39% win probability, but overall results are mixed without clear dominance from either side.
- No significant injury or suspension news reported for either side affecting key players or lineups for the match.
- Game played at Citi Field, giving NYCFC home advantage. Both teams have good motivation levels late in the MLS season to secure playoff positions.
- Columbus Crew, being higher in the table and showing strong recent form with consecutive wins, have a marginal motivation edge; NYCFC also motivated to improve their standings given tight competition.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Columbus Crew +172, New York City FC +143, Draw +255 | Columbus Crew | β β β ββ 60% |
Spread | Columbus Crew +50 -182, New York City FC -0.5 +136 | New York City FC -0.5 | β β β ββ 55% |
Over/under | Over 2.5 -167, Under 2.5 +125 | Under 2.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Columbus Crew SC 28% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 46% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 46% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Columbus Crew to win on the moneyline, NYCFC to cover the spread, and under 2.5 goals total.
Predicted Score: 1-2