Match Analysis: New York City FC vs Charlotte FC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-01
- Time: 7:30 PM UTC
- Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York, USA
Game Overview
This MLS playoff match features New York City FC, at home, against Charlotte FC. NYCFC enters as the favorite based on recent form and home advantage, but Charlotte has shown resilience in head-to-heads and on the road. The outcome could be pivotal for postseason advancement, with both teams motivated to secure a favorable result.
Key Factors to Consider
- New York City FC has been solid at home, while Charlotte FC has a strong record in their last 18 away matches, winning 13. Charlotte, however, lost their most recent encounter with NYCFC 0-1, ending a positive run of results for the visitors[1]. NYCFC's recent form includes wins against Charlotte and other mid-table sides, but consistency remains a question.
- In their last 8 meetings, Charlotte leads 5 wins to NYCFC's 2, with 1 draw[7]. However, NYCFC won the most recent meeting 1-0[1]. The last four matches have not ended in a draw, suggesting a decisive result is likely[3].
- No major injury updates are available in the provided data. Lineups suggest both teams are at near full strength, with key players like Alonso MartΓnez (NYCFC) and Liel Abada (Charlotte) expected to feature[3].
- Playoff intensity is a key factor, likely reducing the risk of complacency. Weather and pitch conditions in New York at this time of year are generally neutral but can occasionally affect tempo and ball movement.
- Both teams are highly motivated given the playoff context. NYCFC seeks to leverage home advantage, while Charlotte aims to reverse recent head-to-head fortunes and continue their strong away form.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Charlotte FC: +355, New York City FC: -135, Draw: +290 | New York City FC | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | Charlotte FC: +75 (-114), New York City FC: -0.75 (-106) | New York City FC -0.75 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.75: -123, Under 2.75: +103 | Under 2.75 | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | New York City FC 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.75 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.75 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
New York City FC is favored at home, but Charlotte FC's historical edge and playoff stakes suggest potential for a tightly contested match. Expect NYCFC to control possession and set the tempo, but Charlotte could counter effectively. A narrow NYCFC win or a draw is most probable, with under 3 goals likely.
Predicted Score: New York City FC 1-0 Charlotte FC