Match Analysis: New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-18
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Gillette Stadium
Game Overview
The 2025 MLS showdown between New England Revolution and Chicago Fire pits an inconsistent Revs side against a more in-form Fire team. Chicago brings offensive momentum into the match, but New England's home field advantage and high-scoring offense could keep them competitive.
Key Factors to Consider
- New England Revolution have struggled for consistency, winning just 3 of their last 10 matches and conceding an average of 1.7 goals per game at home, despite scoring 2.9 per match[3]. Chicago Fire have won 6 of their last 10, averaging 4 goals per game overall and 1.8 per away match, demonstrating strong recent form and attacking prowess[3].
- The teams have met 42 times (15 home wins, 14 away, 13 draws). The last meeting ended 3-2 to Chicago at home, with a slight possession edge and similar statistical output[2]. The historical goal averages suggest a 2.9-goal-per-match environment, with both halves typically producing goals[2].
- No major injury updates available in the sources. Teams are assumed to field their regular starters for this matchup.
- No weather or venue complications noted. New England will benefit from home support, but Chicago's form may neutralize this edge.
- Chicago Fire are pushing for a higher-placed finish and have momentum. New England Revolution, while not in peak form, can still secure home-field value for their fans.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | CHI 125, NE 180, Draw 290 | Chicago Fire Win | β β β ββ 52% |
Spread | CHI -0.5 119, NE +50 -159 | New England Revolution +0.5 | β β β ββ 56% |
Over/under | Over 3.5 107, Under 3.5 -143 | Over 3.5 Goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Chicago Fire 8% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 3.5 28% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 3.5 at 28% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Chicago Fire are slight favorites due to superior recent form and offensive efficiency, but New Englandβs home pitch and high-scoring nature should keep the game tight and lively.
Predicted Score: Chicago Fire 2, New England Revolution 2