Match Analysis: NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 1:30 PM UTC
- Location: Goffertstadion
Game Overview
NEC Nijmegen hosts Groningen in a mid-table Eredivisie clash where the home side is favored by bettors and oddsmakers, but neither team is in blistering form. Both sides have a habit of scoring and conceding, suggesting goals at both ends are likely, yet recent trends hint at fewer goals than the total suggests.
Key Factors to Consider
- NEC Nijmegen has scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches, showing defensive vulnerability but consistent attacking output. Groningen, meanwhile, has both scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 away matches. Neither side is in peak form, with NEC coming off a 1-0 loss to Utrecht despite dominating possession, and Groningen drawing 1-1 with Twente despite a solid home performance[1][2].
- In the last 5 meetings, Nijmegen leads 3-1-1, including a 2-1 win in July 2025. Historically, both teams have scored in over half of their encounters, with both scoring in 5 of the last 10 meetings at Nijmegen's ground[2][7].
- No major injury updates available in the provided data. Both teams are expected to field close to full-strength squads.
- No significant external factors reported (weather, suspensions, etc.).
- Both teams are mid-table with little separating them, but NEC's home advantage and recent H2H edge could boost morale. Groningen's away form has been respectable, keeping them in contention[2][7].
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | NEC Nijmegen -103, Groningen +275, Draw +245 | NEC Nijmegen win | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Spread | NEC Nijmegen -0.5 (-102), Groningen +50 (-118) | NEC Nijmegen -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.75 (-112), Under 2.75 (-108) | Under 2.75 | ★★★☆☆ 54% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | NEC Nijmegen 8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.75 4% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: NEC Nijmegen at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Expect a tight, competitive match with goals at both ends, but not a high-scoring affair. Nijmegen's home strength and recent H2H record edges it, but Groningen's resilience makes them dangerous. The total goals market is the most intriguing given recent trends.
Predicted Score: NEC Nijmegen 1-0 Groningen