Match Analysis: Nashville SC vs New York City FC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-31
- Time: 8:30 PM UTC
- Location: GEODIS Park, Nashville, TN
Game Overview
Nashville SC, currently with the third-best defensive record in the Eastern Conference (17 goals conceded), faces New York City FC, who have a poor recent away record (1 win in 10) and score an average of just 0.86 goals per away match. Nashville has not lost in their last 7 MLS matches and has been particularly strong at home, not losing at halftime in their last 12 home games and with 3 consecutive home HT/FT wins over New York City FC. Nashville also boasts a strong recent record against New York City at home, including a 1-0 victory in their last meeting at this venue.
Key Factors to Consider
- Nashville SC are in strong form (8-3-4 record this season) and defensively solid (3rd-best in the East). New York City FC's away form has been poor (1 win in 10 away matches), and they average less than a goal per away game.
- Nashville SC have won the last home meetings with New York City FC, including a 1-0 victory in their most recent encounter at Geodis Park. Nashville also has a run of 3 consecutive home HT/FT wins over New York City FC.
- No major injury news reported for either team at this time.
- Game is at GEODIS Park, a venue where Nashville SC has been particularly strong. No significant weather disruptions expected.
- Nashville SC are in a playoff-contending spot, adding motivation. New York City FC lack significant momentum and are in need of away improvement.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nashville SC: -115, New York City FC: 295, Draw: 280 | Nashville SC win | High (80%) |
| Spread | Nashville SC: -0.5 (-115), New York City FC: 50 (-105) | Nashville SC cover (-0.5) | High (75%) |
| Over/under | Over: 2.75 (-102), Under: 2.75 (-118) | Under 2.75 goals | High (70%) |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nashville SC 3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.75 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.75 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Nashville SC are clear favorites due to their strong home form, defensive solidity, and New York City FC's poor away record. A low-scoring, controlled home win is expected.
Predicted Score: 2-0 (Nashville SC win)