Match Analysis: Napoli vs Genoa – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-11
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples, Italy
Game Overview
Napoli, currently leading Serie A, hosts Genoa, who are 13th in the table. Napoli has a strong record against Genoa, being undefeated in 22 of their last 23 matches. Genoa faces significant injury concerns, while Napoli has a solid defensive record, keeping clean sheets in their last four Serie A matches.
Key Factors to Consider
- Napoli has been in excellent form, winning their last four Serie A matches, while Genoa has struggled with consistency.
- Napoli has a strong head-to-head record against Genoa, remaining undefeated in 22 of their last 23 matches.
- Genoa has several injury concerns, while Napoli might be cautious with Stanislav Lobotka due to an ankle injury.
- Napoli's home advantage and their push for the Serie A title could motivate them further.
- Napoli is highly motivated to win as they aim to secure the Serie A title, while Genoa seeks to avoid relegation.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -335 (Napoli), 1000 (Genoa), 420 (Draw) | Napoli | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | -1.5 -102 (Napoli), 1.5 -118 (Genoa) | Napoli to cover -1.5 | β β β β β 80% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25 -122, Under 2.25 102 | Over 2.25 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Napoli -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.25 0% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 2.25 at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Napoli is expected to win based on their recent form and historical dominance over Genoa.
Predicted Score: 2-0 to Napoli