Match Analysis: Napoli vs Cagliari – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-30
- Time: 6:45 PM UTC
- Location: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples, Italy
Game Overview
Napoli, playing at home in the Serie A Round 2, hosts Cagliari at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. Napoli has a strong recent form and home advantage, while Cagliari will look to challenge despite being the underdog.
Key Factors to Consider
- Napoli enters the match unbeaten in their last 5 games with a strong attack, scoring 12 goals in their last 5 matches overall. Cagliari has scored 4 goals in their last 5 matches but faces challenges in offense compared to Napoli. Napoli also has a solid defensive record against Cagliari, not having lost in their last 9 meetings (6 wins and 3 draws).
- Napoli and Cagliari have met 9 times recently with Napoli leading unbeaten at 6 wins and 3 draws. This dominance suggests a historical advantage for Napoli in this fixture.
- Napoli will be missing key players Romelu Lukaku and Miguel GutiΓ©rrez due to injury. Cagliari's notable injury concern is forward Leonardo Pavoletti. Other squad members appear fit to play.
- The match is played in Naples, giving Napoli the home crowd advantage at the Diego Armando Maradona stadium which seats over 54,000 supporters. Weather and pitch conditions are typical for late August in Italy with no reported adverse factors.
- Napoli aims to maintain their unbeaten start and strong home form, motivated to assert dominance early in the Serie A season. Cagliari, as the underdog, will be motivated to disrupt Napoli's rhythm and secure valuable points to boost their campaign.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Napoli: -320, Cagliari: 875, Draw: 425 | Napoli Win | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | Napoli: -1.5 -105, Cagliari: +1.5 -115 | Napoli -1.5 | β β β β β 75% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -118, Under 2.5: -102 | Over 2.5 Goals | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Napoli -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 20% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Napoli is favored to win with a strong probability given historical dominance, home advantage, and squad strength despite some injuries. A Napoli victory is the most probable outcome with a moderate likelihood of a draw, while a Cagliari win is unlikely.
Predicted Score: 3-1