Match Analysis: Napoli vs Atalanta BC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-22
- Time: 7:45 PM UTC
- Location: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples
Game Overview
This Serie A clash sees Napoli, currently 4th in the table, host Atalanta BC, who sit 13th. Napoli are in strong form at home, having won all five of their league games at the Maradona and conceding only twice. Atalanta have struggled away, winning just two of their five road fixtures. The match is pivotal for Napoli's Champions League ambitions, while Atalanta seek to climb the table and avoid mid-season stagnation.
Key Factors to Consider
- Napoli have dropped only 4 points in their opening 9 Serie A games, with a perfect home record and a solid defense. Atalanta have shown inconsistency, especially on the road, winning only 2 of 5 away league games. Their recent form shows a dip, with just one win in their last five matches.
- In the last 38 meetings, Napoli have won 17, Atalanta 15, with 6 draws. Napoli have a slight edge in overall head-to-head, but Atalanta have won 2 of the last 6 encounters, including a 3-0 away win in March 2024. Napoli's home record against Atalanta is strong, with 4 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses in the last 5 home meetings.
- No major injuries reported for either side as of the latest updates. Both teams are expected to field their strongest available lineups.
- Napoli's home advantage is significant, with a packed stadium and strong defensive record at the Maradona. Atalanta's away struggles and lack of recent momentum could be decisive. Weather conditions are expected to be mild, with no adverse impact anticipated.
- Napoli are highly motivated to maintain their top-four position and push for Champions League qualification. Atalanta need points to climb the table and avoid slipping further behind, but their away form and recent results suggest a lack of confidence.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Napoli: 127, Atalanta BC: 240, Draw: 212 | Napoli | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Napoli -0.25 -108, Atalanta BC +25 -112 | Napoli -0.25 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25 -120, Under 2.25 100 | Under 2.25 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Napoli -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 30% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 30% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 30% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Napoli are favored to win this match due to their strong home form, defensive solidity, and Atalanta's struggles on the road. Atalanta have shown some resilience in recent head-to-head meetings, but Napoli's consistency and motivation give them the edge. A low-scoring game is likely, with Napoli's defense expected to limit Atalanta's attacking threat.
Predicted Score: 2-0