Match Analysis: Nacional vs Vitória SC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 3 May 2025
- Time: 2:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio da Madeira, Funchal, Portugal
Game Overview
Nacional (13th) hosts Vitória SC (5th) in a Liga Portugal clash. Vitória SC holds a stronger league position and away form, though Nacional has historical H2H success. Nacional struggles defensively (13 losses overall), while Vitória SC demonstrates consistency (9 wins, 11 draws).
Key Factors to Consider
- Nacional: 7W-5D-13L overall, 6W-2D-4L at home. Vitória SC: 9W-11D-5L overall, 3W-6D-4L away. Vitória SC has superior defensive organization (only 5 losses) compared to Nacional.
- 11-7-10 in Nacional's favor across 28 meetings (34-36 goals scored). Recent form favors Vitória SC, who won four away games this season[5].
- No injury data available from provided sources.
- Estadio da Madeira's home advantage for Nacional (6 home wins) balances Vitória SC's superior squad quality.
- Vitória SC fights for European qualification, while Nacional battles mid-table security.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Nacional +310, Draw +240, Vitória SC -115 | Vitória SC | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | Nacional +50 (-108), Vitória SC -0.5 (-112) | Vitória SC -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over 2.25 (-125), Under 2.25 (+105) | Under 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Vitória SC -7% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 13% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Vitória SC moneyline victory due to better organization and away form, though a close match expected. Under 2.25 goals likely given Vitória SC's cautious style.
Predicted Score: 0-1 Vitória SC