Match Analysis: NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-31
- Time: 2:45 PM UTC
- Location: Rat Verlegh Stadion
Game Overview
This Eredivisie match features home side NAC Breda hosting AZ Alkmaar. AZ Alkmaar is the strong favorite based on recent form, league position, and quality across key metrics. NAC Breda has struggled offensively and defensively, while AZ Alkmaar maintains solid away performances and overall team balance.
Key Factors to Consider
- AZ Alkmaar dominates possession (58.5%), averages 3.0 goals and concedes 1.5 per game, showcasing strong attacking and controlled play. NAC Breda averages 0.7 goals scored and concedes 2.0, showing defensive vulnerabilities and offensive inefficiency.
- Historically, AZ Alkmaar has had the upper hand in direct meetings with NAC Breda, typically winning or drawing while keeping NAC's scoring low.
- No major injuries reported for the key players of either team currently affecting this match.
- Match played at NAC Breda's home ground. No special external conditions or disruptions impacting the game are noted.
- AZ Alkmaar is motivated to assert their superiority and maintain early season momentum in a challenging away fixture; NAC Breda seeks to improve poor home results but faces an uphill battle.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | AZ Alkmaar: -181, NAC Breda: +413, Draw: +352 | AZ Alkmaar | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | AZ Alkmaar -1: -115, NAC Breda +1: -112 | AZ Alkmaar -1 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 3: -115, Under 3: -113 | Under 3 goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | AZ Alkmaar 9% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 3 13% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 3 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Away win on the moneyline; AZ Alkmaar -1 on the spread; under 3 goals total.
Predicted Score: 0-2
