Match Analysis: Moreirense FC vs Vitória SC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-23
- Time: 3:00 PM UTC
- Location: Parque de Jogos Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos, Portugal
Game Overview
Moreirense FC, currently 5th in the Primeira Liga, hosts Vitória SC who sit 9th. Both teams have demonstrated similar average goals scored (~1.5) but differ defensively with Moreirense allowing fewer goals on average (0.5) than Vitória SC (2.5). Historically, Vitória SC holds a stronger head-to-head record, though Moreirense has been more consistent recently.
Key Factors to Consider
- Moreirense have a stronger defensive record and a slightly better current form with longer unbeaten and winning runs. Vitória SC has been less consistent and concedes more goals.
- Vitória SC leads H2H with more wins (18 to 5) but Moreirense has won 4 of their past 25 meetings. Recent encounters suggest balanced competitiveness with a slight Vitória edge.
- No specific injury information provided for either side; assume full-strength squads.
- Match played at Moreirense’s home ground provides a home advantage. No other external disruptions noted.
- Moreirense higher league standing (5th) likely motivates them to secure points and maintain position. Vitória SC mid-table placement offers moderate motivation.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Moreirense FC: 240, Vitória SC: 121, Draw: 215 | Moreirense FC | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | Moreirense FC: -108, Vitória SC: -112 | Moreirense FC -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over 2.25: 100, Under 2.25: -120 | Under 2.25 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Moreirense FC 63% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 14% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Moreirense FC at 63% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Moreirense FC to win; Spread: Moreirense FC -0.25; Over/Under: Under 2.25 goals
Predicted Score: 1-0